Comments for MehVP at http://www.18to88.com , comment 1 to 14 out of 14 comments http://www.18to88.com Wed, 08 Feb 2012 07:03:44 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3948 Bob Patterson, Thanks. About the frustration aspect at the end -- I'm trying to identify a very specific type of frustration. I'm not talking about trying to guard Randy Moss or block Lawrence Taylor. That's different, they are just so damn athletically gifted. I'm talking about the frustration that comes from feeling like you are just as good (or better) athletically, but somehow the opponent keeps getting it done. Your defense is doing all the things you want to get done. You're executing the plan, but Indy keeps moving the chains. You're dominating the O-line, stopping the run, pressuring 18. The coverage is really good. You're all over the receivers. That last completion was just luck -- except that it was just like a dozen others. You're so close you can almost touch it, but you never do. Remember John Lynch's comments after the 2d big playoff win over Denver? Broncos upgraded their D and really thought they had the plan. But they got torched. Remember how frustrated Warren Sapp was when he came to Indy with Oakland in 2004? Raiders started out pushing around the O-line, stuffing 32, knocking 18 down, Woodson was shutting down 88, but the Colts kept barely squeezing first downs. WR screen to Stokely got a first down. A hard count got one from an offsides penalty. Oak defense was athletically dominant early, but Indy kept scoring TDs anyway. Sapp was visibly frustrated. It isn't supposed to happen that way. - sb Thu, 03 Dec 2009 18:26:47 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3947 Never, will you convince me that any one team in the NFL other than the Colts puts more on one players shoulders and thereby makes him more 'valuable' than PM is to the Colts. The simple fact is this, the award is a popularity contest and should be viewed as nothing but that. I honestly think if VY keeps it up for two weeks he will get thrown in the mix, even though he is like 1/3 of the reason the Titans are turning it around. Popularity contest...all it is and all it ever will be. - Anhero Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:11:04 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3946 So...many good comments. filiusdextris that is an excellent point. How can you disregard Caldwell's impact without thinking that Peyton is the "engine of the ferrari"? Sb I think that is very solid analysis. I feel (and this may be wrong) that in general teams tend to give up more yards / points in the fourth quarter in general. But, I do agree that the colts tend to do particularly well in those situations. Your analysis would also explain why we do so well at the end of the half. The mental fatigue has set in after playing two full quarters and he strikes. They get a break at halftime, but quickly wear down again by the 4th quarter. What is interesting is that the frustration argument doesn't seem to work on us. The whole bend don't break philosophy necessitates giving up lots of first downs. It would be interesting to see if that frustration factor varies depending on what type of defense you run. Or, perhaps just with the quality of coaching. - bob patterson Thu, 03 Dec 2009 13:25:32 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3945 Question -- does anyone know if opponents play subs less on defense when they play the Colts? I was thinking of all the ways that 18 helps Indy win that have nothing to do with stats (except the W stat). One is the no-huddle. It causes problems for defenses because it reduces their ability to substitute for down and distance situations. They have to put 11 guys out there knowing that they may have to stay on the field for an entire drive (perhaps 10+ plays). Obviously, they also can't rotate linemen to keep them fresh. And they have to be careful about putting a sub out there at the beginning of the drive. If the Colts start taking advantage of him, they may not be able to get him out of there without getting a penalty. Also, it likely helps the running game. Defenses want to be sure to focus on the pass. If they can't situation sub, better start the series with the extra DB out there. But the kicker is this -- I wonder if it doesn't contribute to the Colt offensive success late in games. Not being able to sub wears them out. If their subs play less than normal, they will be more fatigued. That's why I'm curious if anyone has a stat. I think there are likely other reasons that 18 wears defenses down besides the substitution problems he causes: 1) Intensity of focus and concentration for 60 minutes, and 2) frustration factor. First, the concentration issue. Nobody puts as much mental pressure on a defense. Teams are always trying to come up with new ways to slow him down. Then there is the constant cat and mouse game teams play trying to disguise looks til the last minute. Finally, the no huddle means they can't ever relax -- see the quick strike to Collie after the big hit. Peyton just mentally wears defenses down. And it makes a difference at the end of games. Second, frustration. We've all seen games over the years where the other team's defense starts out just wearing out the offensive line and blanketing the receivers. But somehow the Colts keep squeezing out first downs. They don't beat teams with athletic size, strength, leaping ability or speed. And they don't fool them, either. They win with precision. Even when you are stuffing the run, getting a very good pass rush and getting good, tight coverage, the Colts often move the ball. It frustrates people to death. It wears them out. And it pays off in the 4th Q. - sb Thu, 03 Dec 2009 10:39:43 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3944 If a ballot voter doesn't give Caldwell NFL coach-of-the-year, by subscribing to the theory that "hey, it's Manning's team, he's the real coach...", then they better be voting for Manning as MVP. Basically, it's one or the other or the voter is being hypocritical. - filiusdextris Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:53:10 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3942 I don't know what the criteria for winning Comeback Player of the Year award is, but I think that's closer to what Favre deserves to win. Cause like psvirsky was saying, Favre's getting a lot of comparison's to his past 3 years where he looked to be aging, but then went to a stacked team and looks rejuvenated. The Vikings are a solid team and could still win without Favre. Acknowledge his success with the Comeback Player of the Year award. - 35er Thu, 03 Dec 2009 07:48:57 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3939 If either Brees or Manning goes undefeated it is an automatic MVP win. Just the way it is. - DemondSanders Thu, 03 Dec 2009 07:06:28 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3937 In that order. I mostly agree with DZ's assessment, except that Brees had a huge, widely-watched statement game the other night against a team many think of as being elite and having an elite D, true or not. Favre has one outdoor bad weather game in Chicago left, which makes for a pretty sweet sked. (Manning has BUF and Brees... I forget) Both Favre and Brees should be slugging it out for HFA through all 16 games, and therefore are likely to play about 8 quarters MORE than Manning--two whole games worth of stats should drop PM out of the yardage lead, though not the comp pct lead. I think voters take into consideration what we might call "true value" by looking at a team's chances without their leader, by looking at supporting cast, etc, but probably 60-75% of their criteria are in the sheer numbers, and "story" category. Right now, Favre and Brees lead in those. (Like Manning led in "story" last year). Wins are the wildcard, IMO. Say No and MIN both finish 14-2 and somehow IND goes 16-0 (and Manning has a hand in the last wins, rather than just playing a series)... that might sway voters. But then again, isn't voting done BEFORE the last games? Finally, to parallel Doug's comment above, Let the other guys play every snap, along with all their starters. By the time we face them in the SB, they'll have played TWO more games than Manning, and a lot of their stars will have as well. Maybe just a step slower than they should be when fleeing a rested Freeney and Mathis. And we all know what they means. - Bob M Thu, 03 Dec 2009 06:33:45 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3936 the Most Valuable Player. The NFL even tries to make it so by having a seperate Offensive Player of the Year award. However, with rare exceptions (Manning 2008), it goes to essentially the Offensive Player of the Year. I would still give it to Brees. First off, he deserves one after being jobbed in 2006. I know that's not a criteria, but honestly, how he didn't win it in 2006 is beyond me. He was truly valuable. Anyway, I don't think Manning's stats will be better than Brees's by the end of the year, because I expect him to sit much of at least the Buffalo game. I also think Favre, who has a tough stretch of games ahead against good defenses, and one game in frigin Soldier Field to drop off a bit. If he doesn't drop off, give it to him, but he definitely has the most talented roster of the three around him. By definition of valuable, its probably Manning, but voters probably don't want him winning again. - dmstorm22 Thu, 03 Dec 2009 06:25:21 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3935 It's really hard not to compare his play this year to the past few years. He is playing well and I don't want to take that away from him, but it feels like everyone is talking about his season in comparison to his past seasons rather than in comparison to other MVP candidates. So when you look at his career, all the INT's, breaking down late in the year, etc., it's hard to ignore how different this year is for him. Manning and Brees however have put together statistical seasons like this before - it's great but not spectacular by their measure. I'm not saying that Favre's stats don't hold up to theirs, it's just that his feels better because of his past seasons. Obviously I think Peyton deserves it but I think only one stat matters: 6 4th quarter comebacks. They all have good stats and good records and it's tough to quantitatively compare surrounding talent, but this stat is unbelievable. In more than half of our games, Peyton Manning has led the team to a win in the last quarter. I just think this is too remarkable to ignore. - psvirsky Thu, 03 Dec 2009 06:14:20 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3933 Peyton is and has been the MVP every year for at least the last eight seasons. (Deep down, EVERYONE in the NFL or who covers the league knows this.) But your points are well made. (Especially the one where last year, we knew that team was too beat up to be a real Super Bowl threat.) However, just for selfish reasons, I don't want to see Favre go one up on Peyton in career MVPs. If Brees wins the MVP and the Colts the Super Bowl, by golly I'll take that right now and call it a day! - Doug England Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:35:06 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3932 While Peyton has more INTs, he hasn't lost a fumble. Brees lost 4, Favre 1. And I'm hoping Favre gets his picks and fumbles the next two weeks, against Arizona and Cincinnati... If the Colts beat the Titans, and hold CJ to 40-80 yards, he is out of the race... I wouldn't mind a tie, again, in the MVP result. - Attila Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:16:59 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3922 I think it's still feasible the Colts play for 16-0 if they are winning. If they drop a game, however, they will 'turtle up'. I don't want to get into the issue this week, because I think things are about to get a lot clearer on several fronts after this week. As long as the Colts are undefeated, I think Manning will be playing at least the first half of games. - DZ Thu, 03 Dec 2009 03:21:09 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/december/mehvp.html#comment-3921 You bring up 16-0 and going into shell mode, and a lot of commentators have said this as well, that the Colts will rest when it's all clinched. I have to wonder though, would Manning allow himself to be taken out of a game if they have a shot at an undefeated season? - IanB Thu, 03 Dec 2009 03:17:23 +0100