Comments for State of the AFC at http://www.18to88.com , comment 1 to 29 out of 20 comments http://www.18to88.com Wed, 08 Feb 2012 06:43:09 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2705 Springs (FA), Bodden (FA), Merriweather (#1 pick), Butler (#2 Pick), (Wilhite #4 pick) Chung (#2 pick) Wheatley (#2 pick) and McGowan who is an absolute ANIMAL over the middle that will HURT Pierre Garcon. Hurt him. He was a young safety on those bad ass Bears D's a few years ago but got IR'd back to back. This is the best I've felt going into a Colts game since the 03 playoffs when we al knew you were a dome team bunch of bitches that had no shot that ay. - J.C. Wed, 11 Nov 2009 06:13:58 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2704 Learn how to type, retard. Kidding. It's interesting that the Pats have so quickly gone from a hurt and troubled secondary to a super deep elite secondary, if they are as good as you say they are. It seems like both these teams have had multiple years where they have had to pull scrubs in off the street to play DB, but when the injury luck levels off, things change a whole bunch. The Colts have 3 regulars out but are still deep enough that the top 5 guys this weekend are only a medium sized concern. (One more injury, though... look out. We might have to see what Hank Poteat is up to.) How does that dime defense defend the run? Not that I have any confidence that 5 OL can block 3 linemen and Mayo... - Willy Duer Wed, 11 Nov 2009 05:23:37 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2702 From two posts ago do it *well Not will. - J.C. Wed, 11 Nov 2009 04:44:19 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2701 And don't double Clark. If you need to double a tight end you don't have the personnel to win in the NFL. Single Clark with one of our ELITE Safeties (Merriweather or McGowan), Double Clark and let Frenchie and that other fag beat us. All while stuffing the Colts devastating running game. - J.C. Wed, 11 Nov 2009 04:43:47 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2700 That's the thing Bob. Our Dime Package is the best in the NFL. We'll do EXACTLY what you said and do it will. I've been touting our young, athletic, DEEP AS FUCK secondary for months. You'll get to see them first hand Sunday. - J.C. Wed, 11 Nov 2009 04:38:09 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2697 JC, Regarding your threat of TOP domination, I will take a page from the Bellichick SB playbook from two decades ago, when he (or was it Parcells?) said "If Thurman Thomas runs for 100 yards, we win." If the Pats spend their game-time slowing things down, running, taking 5 yard shots, I think the game tilts in Indy's favor. Same if our guys dinked and dunked. If they both dink and dunk, then I guess whoever slips in the most plays over 30 yards wins. These are two offenses that thrive on big plays as well as the threat of big plays. They can grind out 12-play drives if need be, but if your opponent puts a knife in your heart in just 3-4 plays (each team can do it) you have to head back out to the field to grind grind grind. Both teams seem to prefer to be that knife. Have the Pats been running no-huddle a lot this year? That benefits Indy when they DO grind because the D cannot substitute (unless Willie McGinnest or his friends from SF show up). Gass the D. I assume that works okay for the Pats too, if TB is allowed to call his own plays, which seems doubtful. So on long drives, if the odds of a fumble or int or negative play are, for argument's sake, 1/2 of a percent on each play, then a 12-play drive gives you a cumulative 6% chance of something bad happening. The Colts have and will continue to take them odds. We DO have problems with 3rd downs defensively, but it's like a recurring rash--unpleasant to see, but non-lethal. Enjoy your TOP. I know you like to dismiss FO's stats and a whole bunch of other feces at that site, but the drive success rate page has some very basic, irrefutable data such as number of drives. Guess what: Indy has the fewest in the NFL once more but once more are among the league leaders in scoring, score differential, and wins, so few drives and inferior TOP are not a problem. Team similarities: the two teams' overall point differential is one point off and Indy's D has been stingier. Then if you go to FO's main DVOA page, even if you don't buy the concept all the way, their D's and ST's are nearly identical statistically. Now the data may be wrong or skewed, but assuming it's skewed the same for 32 teams, that still leaves the two teams' D and ST squads about even. Of course diving down further suggests that the Pass D and Run D are flipped, with Indy having a better Pass D. Which do you think is more important? The Pats O is marginally superior to the Colts O per FO. Call HFA an equalizer and you have a push. My biggest question is if it will end up 17-14 or 30-27? BTW, the fish with Henne look tougher to me than the fish with Penny. Chad's history was that he was uber-efficient and avoided mistakes. Not this year. And then it ended. We played the Penny version. Okay, defensive strategy: you double Clark and Wayne, which leaves Collie and Garcon singled, 4 guys rushing, and one guy in the middle ground covering the RB (assuming he's not needed for pass pro, which is a huge assumption). No security blanket deep? If Peyton from weeks 2-6 shows up, I laugh at double teams. If Peyton from the last two weeks shows up, dink-and-dunkville. Per FO's charting, the Pats are average against TEs (and Clark is the best) and 31st ranked covering RBs out of the backfield--that's one of the brighter spots for our RBs. So maybe you guys should just double everybody except Frenchie. See how that works. - Bob M Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:22:32 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2696 I don't know... I think those 03-04 teams matched up pretty damn well, and 07 too. I still don't know much about your defense, but much like 07, it's the offense that worries me. The corners are rookies. Good rookies, but still rookies. Tim Jennings will be playing a lot too. I can definitely see some long sustained drives, just the high percentage tough to defend short routes chipping away up and down the field. Quick enough releases to avoid the pass rush and enough of a talent advantage to win the battles between WR and the DBs. The Colts offense isn't playing well enough to beat that if the Pats offense plays well. That said, I understand that they're not a scary 8-0 team, but they're still good. The Pats could be 8-0 right now and we wouldn't be especially scared of them either. No team this season is totally dominant. - Willy Duer Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:19:34 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2695 DZ read my email. - J.C. Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:27:22 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2693 You're not sure what to make of our team, fair enough. I'm no expert either....but I CAN tell you this. By the end of the season, no matter what our record, we will have played Atlanta, Baltimore, @ Denver, @ Indy, @ the Saints, the Fish and Jets twice (both better than anyone gives them credit for) and @ Houston. You get us, Denver and the Jets home. Now I know it's not your fault, you didn't make the schedule, but maybe you guys can see where I'm coming from when I say you're not that intimidating. And I'm going to write this in CAPS because I want you to remember it. THIS PATRIOTS TEAM MATCHES UP BETTER WITH THE COLTS SINCE ANY PATRIOT TEAM EVER. TH - J.C. Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:49:53 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2692 PUT THE GLASS DOWN!! PUT IT DOWN!! ANHEISHER BUSCH DOES NOT OWN YOU!! IT DOES NOT OWN YOU!! - dmstorm22 Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:31:26 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2691 Can you break down for me what the percentages are of me winning a fist fight with DMSTORM at 2,500 feet above sea level while reading an overly prolix essay written by Bob with my left hand while running the stretch play? Thanks bro. - J.C. Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:28:23 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2690 That's total bullshit. I've seen all three teams play multiple games, and the Fish every week (I live here). They're five times the team Houston is and Zona fuckin blows too. TOP might be overrated but when a team holds the ball that long it means you have problems getting off the field on third down. If you have that problem Sunday we're going to bury your ass. I think the Colts (other than Peyton.....he's gangster) are mush. We'll double Dallas and make that French bitch and those other suckers beat us. - J.C. Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:25:21 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2689 we only had the ball for 15 minutes because Peyton had TD drives of 15 seconds, two minutes and three minutes. Its not like we were going 3 and out all the time. TOP is by far the most overrated stat of all time. Also, Arizona and Houston are both better than Miami, and we beat them both, and killed Arizona. - dmstorm22 Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:16:40 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2688 The one where they held the ball for 45 minutes. That one......clown. The fish are the best team you've played all year, I don't care what record or stupid ass DVOA (which means NOTHING) says. And Bob - please, write another 5,000 word dissertation on what a genius DZ is. Just so I can rip you for it. - J.C. Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:05:48 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2687 We've handled Freeney before. Run right at him, chip him when you need to. All I'm saying is that it's a soft 8-0. Nobody fears Indy. - J.C. Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:02:25 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2686 there is no point in arguing with you. None at all. Peyton will do all the arguing we need on Sunday. BTW, none of our starting DBs are on IR. Our starters (considering Sanders had played only parts of two games) was Hayden, Powers, Bullitt, Bethea. Three of those will be playing, and Hayden is not on IR. I'm not sure what Dolphins game you were watching. In what way did they dominate us?? We scored at will against them. - dmstorm22 Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:01:54 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2685 trivia question: is it Bertrand Berry? No idea if he's still with the Cards, but if not I cannot come up with a name. DZ, thanks for pointing out the prospect of another week of playoff games WC weekend. Even if that's chalked up as a 90% chance of winning, that's still a 10% chance of losing (I amaze me sometimes--guess I got that Nobel in mathematics for something after all!). JC, pussies? Who are you talking about being pussies? The team whose leader begs for roughing calls and gets them? It's called working the refs and it's the cheapest way to win anything imaginable. He's tainted the perceived manliness of that entire organization. Brady said it himself about Freeney last week. Paraphrasing, it went something like, "I fill my frilly panties with fudge just thinking about that big mean man rushing at me and me being unable to call a ref over to take care of my knee in time...." If you read it in the same voice Jame Gumb uses most of the time in Silence of the Lambs, you get the idea. Like when he's saying, "It puts the lotion on its skin or it gets the hose." I understand he plans to have them pre-flag the DL just in case they get near him. Maybe during warm-ups. Come on, Maroney's healthy and had a big game last week, which means that historically, he's due to break a clavicle or something vs Indy. Fred Taylor just broke something reading this morning's paper. I think Moss actually benefits from playing bigger DBs because his pushoffs just before the ball arrives have less visible impact. But when he flat-out plants our smurfs into the turf (think Otto being paved by the steam roller at the end of A Fish Called Wanda), the visual evidence will be overwhelming and the refs will have no alternative but to throw a flag... for roughing the passer, of course. - Bob M Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:50:49 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2684 The fish physically dominated you fucking pussies for the whole game. You think you're gonna have three huge strike scores against us with Dallas Clark? You think you're gonna run the ball against us? Isn't your whole secondary on IR? Even at 8-0..........nobody is scared of you guys. Nobody. - J.C. Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:17:55 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2682 I fear Pittsburgh far more than any other AFC team (even those soulless Chargers who seem incapable of winning big games except for against us). Pittsburgh looked scary good last week. My only gripe is I would have Denver over SD. Denver really controlled that matchup in SD. About NE. I love how Brady said that "Joey Porter motivated us." If that was a motivated Patriots team, that is really sad. They looked lethargic and unimpressive (save for one Moss play) against a slightly-above average Dolphins team. In '07, they were "motivated" by teams hating on spygate, and they spanked teams. In '09, they get "motivated" and beat 3-4 teams at home by 10. These are not the '07 Pats at all. Double Moss, pressure Brady, and you got their offense. You can hold them in the 20's easily with that formula. That's why I fear Pittsburgh alot more. You can hold them down too, but they can hold us down. They have a shutdown defense. The stats can say what they want, but I still don't think there is a better defense when the chips are down than the Steelers. Remember, alot of their defensive 4th quarter woes come when Polumalu was out and that perceived "4th quarter comeback" by the Chargers. Anyway, about FO having us 4th and NE 1st and us having better playoff numbers. The reason, as DZ said, is that we would, more often than not in their projections, be the home team. Also, they might project NE to go down in DVOA the rest of the year. Alot of NE's DVOA greatness is purely on the Tennessee game and Tampa game, when they rolled over awful teams, including one that actually quit mid-game. They have not really been that impressive outside of those two games. They have played two teams over .500 (ATL, @DEN) and are 1-1. We have played two (HOU, @ARZ) and are 2-0. - dmstorm22 Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:57:44 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/november/state-of-the-afc.html#comment-2681 There is only one player from the Colts 1998 roster besides Peyton Manning that is still currently in the NFL. Can you name that player? HINT: He's a defensive end. First one to answer without help from google wins. Honor system folks! - Zach Winningham Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:21:07 +0100