Comments for Old Manning at http://www.18to88.com , comment 1 to 12 out of 12 comments http://www.18to88.com Wed, 08 Feb 2012 07:16:49 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-8604 As I said somewhere else... No, you see real means "corresponding with reality" You just made that up in your head just now. That's called "imaginary". - DZ Mon, 15 Feb 2010 08:04:03 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-8601 If Manning plays another 6 years, he will win 0 superbowls. That is a real stat. - Smac12234 Mon, 15 Feb 2010 08:01:00 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-415 That's a good point as far as Montana goes. Young did have 2 4,000 yard seasons (and a 3900 yard season in which he posted a then record 112.8 rating. He also had two seasons with more than 30 TDs, so his volume stats were a little better. The overall point is true. There's never been anyone like Manning. He's Marino with better accuracy and less ego. - DZ Sun, 23 Aug 2009 06:55:17 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-414 One that that I saw when comparing to other QB's is that you have "Volume QB's" such as Favre, Marino, and to a lesser extent, Bledsoe. Then, you have Efficiency QB's such as Montana, Young, and to an extent, Ken Anderson. When Anderson threw for 70%, it was in the strike shorted '81 year. Montana had a very high passer rating year but it was in a relatively low amount of attempts. Young has a 96 career passer rating, but Peyton has long passed him in volume. In the two seasons that Manning has thrown less than 500 passes, he has had a rating of at least 104. Favre has huge volume numbers with a low 80's passer rating. Not to overstate the obvious, but the magic of Manning is that he has been able to combine the volume of the numbers guys with the efficiency of precision guys and mesh them together into a career that has never before been seen. - kailes2872 Sun, 23 Aug 2009 06:45:10 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-404 You, of course, are exactly right. I didn't mean it to sound like I thought Peyton would retire simply because he couldn't put up monster stats anymore. I guess the real question is can the Colts put a team on the field like the Broncos did, that can win with Manning managing the game and not having to pass for 30 TDs and 4000 yards. - Doug England Fri, 21 Aug 2009 11:06:24 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-403 As long as they win, Peyton won't care. Look at 2005. He's coming off of two MVP awards and basically played Captain Checkdown all season as teams were terrified of the deep ball. He'll keep playing as long as he feels like the team can win. I think he'd give up 4K yards and 30 TDs gracefully as long he knew the team was going to be a playoff factor. - DZ Fri, 21 Aug 2009 10:20:56 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-401 Good call on the legs and a great point. (Also great line about "that's Brady's whole career".) I once heard Johnny Miller say that as a professional golfer, you reach a point where you realize that no matter what you do or how hard you work, you'll never be able to get better. Not that I have ever reached that point at anything, but for a professional athlete, that has to be a pretty sobering feeling. Being the perfectionist that he is, I wonder if when Peyton gets to the point that he is just "effective" or "slightly above average" if that will be good enough for him. - Doug England Fri, 21 Aug 2009 10:12:33 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-399 He will stay special. 3000 yard seasons and QB ratings in the high 80s...that's called Tom Brady's whole career up til 2007. What goes is the legs as much as the arm. The rotator cuff wears out (see Favre, Brett), and the knees creak (see Elway and Marino). The knee/leg injuries are what worry me more than the arm stuff. Manning has had himself on a pitch count (no more offseason throwing sessions like the old days with Marv and Edge) for some time. So much velocity is determined by the legs though, that with one surgery already under his belt, it's naive to think they won't weaken with time. Those numbers look low because we are used to Manning numbers. Pour over the careers of HoF QBs for a week, and you realize that my projections for Peyton are on par with some of the best years of their careers. - DZ Fri, 21 Aug 2009 08:38:28 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-398 Obviously, I want Peyton to defy the stats and play like vintage Manning as long as possible. Still, numbers don't lie. But from a physical standpoint, what do you anticipate the physical differences being between the 33 and 38 year old Mannings. Is it a foregone conclusion that he will lose arm strength regardless of how he trains? What won't the 38 year old Manning be able to do that the 33 year old Manning can? My belief (or should I say delusion) is that as long as Peyton wants to engage mentally, he will be able to perform at close to his current level. (Baring injury of course.) When he retired, Elway said that if he had two weeks to recover between games, like he did for the Super Bowl, he could play for years at his current level. Since I don't believe Peyton has taken near the punishment over the years that Elway subjected himself to... who knows what his longevity could be? (But perhaps Elway's arm was so strong, that even though he lost his "Fastball" no one really knew but him, because his arm was still stronger than everyone elses.) - Doug England Fri, 21 Aug 2009 08:29:52 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-385 I had been adjusting some of the numbers up and down, and missed a change. I've updated the stats now. It should read 363/550, rating of 95.8 Nice catch. My feeling is that they will be contenders in any of the years (including this one), but I think the O and D lines are a year away still. I started this project under the assumptions that Favre wasn't coming back. Now he is. I don't believe Manning will retire just short of the records. If healthy, I think he comes back to play at 39. The ugly elephant in the room is the increasing likelihood of a 2011 work stoppage. That could sink everything. - DZ Thu, 20 Aug 2009 12:39:14 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-384 By the way, the 2010 season looks very similar to the 2005 season in YPA and passer rating. With Brown in his 2nd year and Addai playing for a contract - as well as one last great year from Wayne and Freeney, it seems that the team could be setting itself up for a big run in 2010. This is especially true if guys like Moala, Collie, and Powers take a year 2 jump and they are able to land a stud LT in the 22-28 spot in the 2009 draft. I am not counting out this year as crazy things can happen in the playoffs - but if this plays out, then 2010 could be the big opportunity to get matching jewelry as the #1 seed, favorite, etc. Of course, that will be his contract year (and very well a 4th MVP), so good luck to Polian and Irsay negotiating his final deal with that season at his back. - kailes2872 Thu, 20 Aug 2009 12:20:46 +0100 http://www.18to88.com/2009-archives/august/old-manning.html#comment-383 Thanks for doing this - I have been working on out year projections and I appreciate the data set that you are using it. One thing - 2009, you have 550 attemps 330 completions. I have that as 60% (330 of 500 would be 66%). This completion % would the second lowest of his career to his rookie year and will drop his passer rating this year from 98.3 to 90.83. If you suspecti it will be 66%, with attempts and YPA holding, it would require 364 completions. Last year, he completed 371 out of 550, so it is definitely likely. Using the numbers you provided, I came up with the following career totals: Attempts: 9000 Completions: 5798 (Favre 5720) Yards: 67,674 (Favre 65,127) YPA: 7.52 TD's: 501 (Favre 464) Int: 253 Passer Rating: 93.94 It seems like he had a good chance of passing Favre if he stayed healthy, but, alas, #4 came back. As long as this is Favre's last year and he doesn't throw for 35 TD's, Peyton has a good chance of setting that record. With any season at all from #4, the completion and Yards records will be just out of reach. One bummer is that he will have 501 TD's and 253 int's - just outside of the 2:1 ratio. 272 games - if Favre would have been, I think he was at 269. So, as long as he starts more than 4 games this year, that record would seem out of reach as well. - kailes2872 Thu, 20 Aug 2009 12:12:07 +0100