It's Gonna Happen:  18 Bold Visions of 2007

We have made some bold claims before the season began.  Let's take a look back and see how we did at predicting the future. 

1)  Tom Brady will have roughly the same year in 2007 that he has had in every other season.  His numbers will be roughly 4000 yards, 28 TDs, 15 INTs, and a passer rating of 89.

Result:  WRONG.  No, you see it turns out Randy Moss is still really good. 

2)  Anonymous Rams quarterback Marc Bulger will again throw 25 touchdowns. This will prompt Stephen Jackson to offer his congratulations to “our fearless leader, Mack Folgers.”

Result:  WRONG.  Try 11 touchdowns and 15 picks on the way to a 3-13 season.

3)  Randy Moss will not double the production of Anthony Gonzalez.  He will fail to double the yards, catches or TDs of a rookie, number 3 receiver. 

Result:  WRONG.  No, you see it turns out Randy Moss is still really good. 

4)  Desperate for a change of pace, Detroit Lions fans will trade their grocery bags in favor of handy, dandy, identity-concealing Duct Tape.  (below)

Result:  CORRECT.  The Lions teased us with competence and thus made their inevitable return to crappiness all the more painful for their fans.

5)  Jason David and Nick Harper will surrender at least 5 combined TDs to Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.

Result:  WRONG.  We thought this was a gimmee after David was burned for 3 scores in the opener.  Manning exploited Harper in Week 2, but not for a score.  He rested in the final game.

6)  The Colts will not miss Cato June.  The run defense will be ranked at least 10 spots higher in 2007 and will stiffen by at least 1 yard per carry.

Result:  CORRECT.  The Colts gave up an impossibly bad 173 rushing yards per game in 2006, dead last in the NFL.  They allowed 5.3 yards per carry.  This season they ranked 15th against the run allowing 106 yards per game.  They allowed only 3.8 yards per carry, good enough for sixth in the NFL.

7)  Miami’s First round draft pick Ted Ginn Jr. will throw for 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns.  No, scratch that.  He’s a punt returner. 

Result:  CORRECT.  This was one of the big mistakes of the NFL draft.  Maybe the biggest.  Ginn Jr. caught 34 balls and 2 touchdowns on a 1-15 team.  He did return a punt for a touchdown.

8)  The Colts will win the AFC South.

Result:  CORRECT.  Nearly swept the division.

9)  David Garrard will be an unmitigated disaster:  Garrard was border-line horrible last season, getting yanked in the middle of the last game of the season; a game the Jags had to win.  In his favor, is his 60% completion percentage, and acceptable passer rating of 80.  On the other hand, he also threw 9 Interceptions in just 10 games in which he threw a pass.  He also fumbled twice.  He was the quarterback as the Jags lost their last three games and four of their last six.  One of the games the Jags won in that stretch was the beat down of the Colts, a game in which he only had to throw 14 passes because Gilbert Gardner and Cato June couldn’t figure out how to tackle.  When last we saw him, he was melting down under the pressure of playing a virtual playoff game.  He is not the answer in Jacksonville, and will sabotage their season.

Result:  WRONG.  Garrard couldn't have been better, throwing 18 touchdowns against only 3 picks.

10)  The Titans won't win 6 games unless Vince Young shows dramatic improvement as a passer (i.e. greater than 55% completion percentage).  The Titans won’t have the same luck they benefited from in 2006. 

Result: RIGHT AND WRONG.  Vince Young regressed from marginal to awful (9 touchdowns and 17 picks in 2007).  At the EXACT SAME TIME, he increased his completion % from 51.5% to 62.3%, a remarkable improvement.  His YPA also improved. He also missed a game and parts of two others, yet the Titans managed to win 10 games and make the playoffs.  Weird team led by a great coach.  In the end, Young's play seems to have nothing to do with the Titans winning or losing.

11)  Joe Addai will out perform Fred Taylor:  This sounds obvious, unless your name is Fred Taylor.  http://www.jaguars.com/multimedia/video.aspx?id=2375

Result:  CORRECT.  It's debatable because both played great.  Addai's stats are skewed because he was intentionally rested for most of December.  We'll give him the edge because he found the end zone far more often than Taylor, and was named to the Pro Bowl over Taylor.  The playoffs will provide the true answer to this question.

12)  Del Rio will be fired during the season:  He’s among the worst in-game coaches in the league and he has screwed up the QB situation as badly as humanly possible.  His time is up.

Result:  WRONG.  Del Rio made the call of the year by cutting Byron Leftwich a week before the season.  Realizing he was coaching for his job, he decided to go for it on fourth down more than any coach in the league.  Always a smart move.  Did we really just say that?

13)  As Dwight Freeney helps himself to his second sack of the game, it will suddenly hit Matt Schaub: being the second-best quarterback in the AFC South isn’t anything to write home about.

Result:  WRONG.  Schaub was the third best quarterback in the AFC South in 2007.  Fourth if you count his replacement, Sage Rosenfels.  His season was derailed by the knee injury to Andre Johnson, and later by his own injury.  

14)  The Colts will outperform their Pythagorean win total by more than one win (again):  For the last several years the Colts have won more games than the normally reliable Pythagorean win stat would suggest.  This year they are expected to win 9.6 games.  They will win at least 11. 

Result:  CORRECT.  The Colts exceeded even our expectations by notching 13 wins.  They made everyone forget about Cato June, Jason David, and Nick Harper. 

15)  Giants coach Tom Coughlin will be fired for ordering the covert assassination of Tiki Barber.  Backed into a corner, he will interview for his old job in Jacksonville, promising to continue the proud Jaguar tradition of .500 football.

Result:  INCOMPLETE.  If the Giants lose to the Bucs this weekend because of Tiki's loose lips then we may see a murder yet. 

16)  San Diego will regret the hire of Norv Turner, despite excellent talent.

Result:  CORRECT.  The Chargers won 3 fewer games this season and Philip Rivers looked significantly worse throwing the ball.  Norv needs a playoff win in the worst way.

17)  Scandal will again rock the NFL as a Youtube video will surface of Peyton Manning engaged in the heinous act of poodle grooming. 

Result:  WRONG.  Manning's dogs, Colt and Rookie, are safe and sound as far as we know.

18)  None of the departed Colts will outperform their replacements.

• Freddy Keiaho will outperform Cato June

• Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson will outperform Jason David and Nick Harper

• Kenton Keith will out perform Dom Rhodes

• Anthony Gonzalez will outperform Brandon Stokley

• Ed Johnson will outperform Cory Simon and Montae Reagor