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Eyes in the Backfield:  Colts at Panthers



I still say the Panthers get caught in it
 
1.)  Watch out for traps.  Normally, a tough road game against a team with a winning record wouldn’t qualify as a trap game, but this week is the exception.  The Panthers are a team of dubious quality sandwiched between the two biggest games of the year for the Colts.  The Colts don’t often slip up, and will likely have it together this week.

2.)  Watch for shared loads.  Addai and Keith split their carries almost evenly on Monday night, and it seems Addai’s injury coupled with Keith’s productivity have led the Colts down the same path the followed last year with Addai and Rhodes.  Keith was in the game not only for many carries, but significant ones as well, getting a TD and other 3rd down runs.

3.)  Watch for Manning to have time to throw.  Like the Jags, the Panthers real strength is up front, but they are last in the league in adjusted sack rate.  Julius Peppers has struggled some this year, but has come on of late.  Manning spent a good portion of the Monday night game getting hit and avoiding pressure, but the O line is best in the league in protecting Manning.  It seems unlikely the Panthers will get consistent pressure this week.

4.)  Watch for Dwight Freeney to get multiple sacks.  Freeney has been increasingly disruptive this year, and teams are compensating by throwing shorter routes and doubling him at all times.  The Colts are 2nd in the league in defensive passing yards per attempt, while near the bottom of the list of completion %.  This is tough to do, but means that teams are throwing extremely short.  Freeney is a big part of the reason why.

5.)  Watch the last positive swing game.  Last year the Colts lost 4 games, 3 road games in the division and a road game against a good NFC team.  Since Atlanta doesn’t qualify as good, it looks like the Panthers are this year’s Dallas game.   A win here would put the Colts at 4-0 in the games they lost last year.  This bodes well in the quest for a 14-2 record and a bye.

6.)  Watch Marvin Harrison.  After just catches and limited playing time on Monday, questions remain about his health.  The Colts need a healthy Marvin to stretch the field, so check the number of consecutive plays he’s in on.

7.)  Watch the Panthers QB situation.  Neither David Carr nor Vinnie Testaverde strike fear into our hearts, but they do bring different qualities to the table.  Carr is somewhat more mobile, and has a lot of experience against the Colts.  Testaverde. . . well, Vinny is just plain old.

8.)  Watch out for maximum advantage.  I can’t imagine that the Panthers could ever have a greater leg up on the Colts than they do this week.  They are coming off a bye and playing at home, while Indy is playing on the road for the second time in 6 days.  If the Panthers can’t win this game, then they are probably incapable of beating the Colts at all.

9.)  Watch for fading glory.  A couple of years back the Panthers were in the Super Bowl, and looked to be building a perennial contender with a young QB in Jake Delhomme.  Since that last second loss to the Patriots, the Panthers have gone 30-24 and Jake has not really developed into a consistent winner, and is lost for this season due to injury.  They have been up and down, with 2007 slated as an up year.  They are 4-2, but haven’t looked impressive.

10.)  Watch Steve Smith vs. the Colts secondary.  Smith is a big, physical WR who can dominate a game, but on Sunday he has to match up with a hard hitting secondary.  Smith would have to have a huge game against the NFL’s #1 pass defense for the Panthers to win.

11.)  Watch for hype.  It’ll be hard to remember that the Colts aren’t playing Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, because the networks won’t stop talking about next week’s game.  It’ll be easy to forget who the Colts are actually playing.

12.)  Watch for a high scoring affair highlighted by outstanding quarterback play from David Carr, followed quickly by the apocalypse.

13.)  “Watch for the onside kick.”  John Fox seems like a pretty smart coach.  Is he smart enough to know that he has no shot in this game without making his own luck?

14.)  Watch for the random, back-breaking fumble.  Fumbles are football death.  A big reason the Colts are so hot is that they have fumbled only three times in six games, losing only one.  Remember Reggie Wayne’s fumble run back by Jason David?  No way this fumble-less streak continues, right?  Meanwhile the Panthers' Foster has three fumbles in less than 100 carries.

15.)  Watch for a breather for the fans.  Enjoy one more week of football before you find yourself sitting next to this clown during the biggest regular season game in NFL history.

16.)  Look for Manning to amaze the Carolina fans.  The NFC South is used to quarterbacks the likes of Michael Vick, Brad Johnson, Aaron Brooks, and Chris Weinke.  The rare visit from Manning must be like the time Joe Montana played in the Hoosier Dome. For the record:  Montana and Jerry Rice teamed on a 58-yard touchdown pass with 5 minutes, 21 seconds left to propel the Niners to a 30-24 victory in the 1989 season opener.

17.)  Watch his reaction:  How much will it mean to Manning when he passes Unitas this Sunday? Will he pause to acknowledge his own greatness?

18.)  Watch for the big pick.  Vinny always throws a pick or two, and usually at the worst possible moment.  It’s the main reason he never stuck around anywhere for very long.  Remarkably, the Colts have 8 interceptions in 6 games by 8 different players.  They are on pace to top the 15 interceptions the defense notched in 2006.

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